Proprietary Solutions

Daniel Research Group has developed several proprietary methods and tools that address many common forecasting and segmenting challenges:

SegmentSolver - is a very powerful, yet flexible method that allows knowledge analysts to allocate a top-line forecast to segments based on a wide variety of parameters including Percent of Total, Compound Annual Growth Rate, Periodic Growth Rates, Trend in Periodic Growth Rates, and many other management metrics. In addition, the knowledge analysts can shape the individual segment forecast to conform to a wide variety of functions and curves including discrete and anomalous direct input.

The tools based on this method include a number of support features and functions that facilitate efficient use of knowledge analyst time, and allow them to focus on their vision of the market. Multiple SegmentSolvers© may be organized in a hierarchical architecture to efficiently produce multi-segmented output that represents the knowledge analysts market view with a minimum of input and operational effort.

MatrixSolver - solves the problem of crossing two independently arrived at segmentations of the same forecast, e.g. unit shipments by vertical and unit shipments by geography. While there may be a high degree of confidence in the independent segment forecasts, there may not be sufficient information available to directly compute the cross. The method allows the knowledge analyst to apply crossing estimates based on partial or incomplete quantitative evidence, or by quantitative expressions of qualitative assessments, to produce an intelligently informed output that meets all input criteria.

BandSolver  - expands on MatrixSolver by adding additional constraints where one of the segments is banded by price, performance (such as storage capacity), or market metrics (such as number of employees).

InstallBaseSolver - creates an installed base from a historic and forecasted unit shipment time-series and assumptions about the retention rate distribution. The retention rate distribution may be determine by application of a hazard rate or based on market research findings and analysts estimates. The resulting installed base is most often used to estimate the Total Available/Addressable market that is being penetrated by a new product or service. It is also used when the model context included replacement sales as well as new sales.

GrowthSolver - Is an Inventory of univariate functions that allow the user to extrapolate, interpolate, retro-cast or forecast a time-series that reflects qualitative and intuitive assessment about the shape of the curve. The inventory includes a method that combines several of the trending methods to produce an output time series that is highly intuitive.

ShareSolver - Is a methodology that guides knowledge analysts through the process of identifying and weighting the competitive factors, scoring vendors strengths, and translating these assessments into model parameters that can be used in multivariate causal models. Most of these models also include an installed base inertia component.

CalibrationSolver - is used to modify the output time-series of a multiple taxonomy forecast model to conform to external target criteria derived from an independent source such as a bottom-up tracker based model, prior published data, or analysts assessment. If the calibration is constrained then only a sub-set of the data is modified to meet the criteria while another sub-set is modified to absorb the changes in the opposite direction resulting in no change to designated higher aggregate levels.

Daniel Research Group Individual Adoption Model (DIAM) - Our three decades of experience in the technology sector has lead us to formulate a new theory of innovation adoption that is focused on the distribution of threshold values for observation of others buying. It is the distribution of these thresholds that is the primary cause of much of the observed variance (saddles and surges) in the actual market. This methodology creates forecasts with superior descriptive, predictive and normative properties compared to other methods, and is particularly powerful in predicting the length and depth of saddles and surges.